Ben Blowers, Lucion's Associate Director and GIS Lead, took to the stage at the Association for Geographic Information (AGI) Housing Network event, speaking to industry leaders grappling with what may be the most challenging period for housebuilding in modern history.
Construction remains the hardest-hit sector in the UK economy, with 3,803 construction firms falling into insolvency in the 12 months leading up to May 2026. In May alone, 281 registered construction businesses became insolvent – accounting for 16% of all insolvencies in England and Wales, despite construction firms representing just 14% of all registered UK businesses.
For housebuilders specifically, the pressures are mounting from every direction. The Home Builders Federation’s (HBF) latest SME Developer Sentiment Survey revealed a sharp deterioration in confidence, with nine in ten SME housebuilders saying the Iran conflict has made their business outlook for the next 12 months worse than expected. Three-quarters now hold a negative view of market conditions, compared with just 37% holding that view earlier in 2026.
Tom Chapman, Business Development Manager for our specialist land and building survey business Lucion Surveys Ltd, explains,
“The housing market is facing a perfect storm. Housebuilders are dealing with rising costs, higher debt servicing, cyclical demand pressures, planning risks, and unprecedented regulatory complexity – all whilst trying to meet ambitious government housing targets. Development viability has, for the first time, overtaken planning delays as the most significant supply-side challenge. Sites that looked viable 12 months ago may no longer stack up financially, and the cost of getting site assessment wrong has never been higher.”
According to the HBF, nearly half (49%) of SME developers expect to reduce land purchasing activity, and 94% report that market conditions are causing caution when considering new site starts. With no government support for first-time buyers in place for the first time in 60 years, and a HBF report showing that taxes and policy costs have increased the cost to build a new home by an average of £76,000, the margin for error has all but disappeared. But it’s not all doom and gloom.
De-Risking Sites With The Green Light
It’s in this context that Ben Blowers’ recent presentation at the AGI Housing Network Event takes on particular urgency. His demonstration of how advanced GIS workflows can rapidly identify development constraints and opportunities presents fantastic opportunities for developers. Ben commented:
“In the current market, developers simply cannot afford to invest time and capital in sites that won’t deliver. The difference between a viable development and an unviable one can come down to factors that aren’t immediately obvious – flood risk that will emerge under future climate scenarios, ecological constraints that will trigger costly mitigation, topography that makes earthworks uneconomical, or proximity to protected sites that will delay planning consent.
Our role at Lucion is to surface these issues at the earliest possible stage, so developers can make informed decisions about where to invest their increasingly limited resources. And we do this through our Housebuilders Screening Toolkit.”
From Site Search to Site Screening
Our approach to supporting housebuilders operates at two complementary levels, both designed to minimise risk and accelerate decision-making:
1. Site Searching
Using workflows like “Red Light, Green Light,” we help our clients identify potential development opportunities across large geographical areas, rapidly filtering out constrained sites whilst highlighting those with the greatest potential.
2. Site Screening
Once sites have been identified – whether through site search or from clients’ existing land holdings – our team conducts detailed due diligence using our Housebuilders Screening Toolkit. This integrated, GIS-powered solution provides rapid, data-driven insights across five key assessment areas:
SiteScreen – Initial Site Appraisal and Context
Understanding a site’s history and context is fundamental to assessing risk. Historical analysis can reveal former industrial uses, infilled ponds, or previous development that may indicate contamination or ground stability issues – factors that can derail a scheme or significantly impact viability. SiteScreen provides:
- Rapid site context using LiDAR DTM/DSM data
- Constraint mapping including historical Ordnance Survey maps dating back to 1885
- Historical imagery analysis tracking site evolution from 2014 to present
- Environmental constraints assessment including flood risk and flight restrictions
- BSG geology, landfill and mining risk evaluation
FloodScreen – Strategic Flood Risk Assessment
With one in four properties in England projected to be at risk of flooding by 2050, and 59% of Grade 1 farmland similarly threatened, flood risk assessment is no longer optional. Sites with unmanaged flood risk are increasingly uninsurable and unmortgageable, making them effectively undevelopable. FloodScreen delivers:
- Portfolio-wide evaluation using Environment Agency flood maps
- Future climate resilience projections
- Surface water risk analysis with expert interpretation
- Comprehensive assessment of flooding from rivers and the sea (RoFRS) and surface water (RoFSW)
TopoScreen – Topographical Analysis and Visualisation
Ground conditions can make or break development economics. With construction costs under intense pressure, understanding earthworks requirements early can mean the difference between a viable scheme and an unviable one. TopoScreen provides:
- LiDAR DTM/DSM terrain analysis for accurate ground modelling
- Contour mapping at 1m intervals
- Red-Amber-Green (RAG) maps and 3D oblique views
- Cut-and-fill analysis for earthworks volume calculations
- Elevation, contour and spot height mapping
ClimateScreen – Climate Change Risk Analysis
The government’s Land Use Framework, published in March 2026, makes clear that future development must be climate-resilient. Our ClimateScreen assesses:
- Heat stress and heatwave potential
- Water stress analysis including seasonal rainfall and temperature shifts
- Shrink-swell analysis for clay-rich soils
- Fire severity index and wildfire potential
- Cooling degree-days and maximum surface wind speed projections
BNGScreen – Provisional Biodiversity Net Gain Assessment
With Biodiversity Net Gain now mandatory, understanding ecological constraints and opportunities from the outset is essential. Early identification of high-value habitats or protected species can prevent costly redesigns or scheme abandonment later in the process. Our BNGScreen provides:
- Desktop BNG analysis and baseline scores
- Remotely sensed environmental data integration
- Habitat mapping
- Assessment of potential ecological constraints
- Strategic guidance for masterplanning to achieve BNG requirements
- Analysis of nature conservation designated sites (international and national)
Navigating the New Planning Landscape
England’s first Land Use Framework sets out a coherent national vision demonstrating that the country has sufficient land to build the homes needed to address the housing crisis – provided these objectives are delivered through smarter, more integrated spatial planning. The government’s planning reforms are introducing mandatory Spatial Development Strategies (SDS) across England, and for developers, understanding how local sites fit within emerging regional strategies, Local Nature Recovery Strategies, and Environmental Delivery Plans will be critical to securing planning consent and avoiding costly delays.
HM Land Registry’s shift toward a digital-first, geospatial land register promises to improve transparency and reduce transaction friction, whilst the emphasis on geospatial data interoperability across government agencies reflects the growing recognition that fragmented data systems are holding back housing delivery. This is where our approach at Lucion becomes particularly valuable. By integrating authoritative datasets from organisations like HM Land Registry, Ordnance Survey, the Environment Agency, and Natural England with bespoke spatial analysis, we help developers navigate this increasingly complex landscape. Our Housebuilders Screening Toolkit identify constraints and provides the evidence base needed to engage confidently with local planning authorities, statutory consultees, and communities.
As members of the Home Builders Federation, our teams across Lucion understand the pressures facing the industry. The Housebuilders Screening Toolkit is designed to frontload risk assessment, providing comprehensive intelligence at the earliest stage of site evaluation. By identifying fatal flaws early, accelerating viable schemes, supporting land negotiations, building stakeholder confidence, and enabling portfolio optimisation, the toolkit helps developers make faster, more confident decisions in a market where the difference between success and insolvency can come down to a single site selection mistake.
Speak to us to demo the Housebuilders Toolkit by emailing us at [email protected]
